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 Forwardlook Value: 1962, 1965, 1987, 2008Jump to page : 1 Now viewing page 1 [50 messages per page] | View previous thread :: View next thread |
| Forward Look NON-Technical Discussions -> 1955-1961 Forward Look MoPar General Discussion | Message format |
slimwhitman |
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Elite Veteran Posts: 988    Location: Kansas City, Kansas | If your not ready for data overload, then leave this thread. This is the accumulation of several years of a curiosity of mine. I shared some of this info on the mailing list in the summer, but thought the rest of you might like to see it and respond. So why do we seem to see fewer forwardlook Mopars than same year Fords & Chevies? Many of us might conclude that it was the poor build quality. That may be partly true in '57 & '58 especially, but I offer another reason: poor resale value when they were on the used car market in the 1960’s. I have been wondering this for a long time so I thought I'd dig up some numbers and get some proof. I took the Red Book Used Car Guide for 1965 and 1962 and plugged in the numbers to better see how our cars stacked up to the other makes…..Not very good. The Red Book goes back 7 years (by that time the value was so low, there was no reason to include cars older than that and car dealers didn't care to re-sell them). Here are some general stats: In '62, the average '55 low-line 6 cyl 2dr sedan was worth about $160 (trade-in was $120). An upper-middle-class '55 2drHT maxed out at around $400-$500 (trade-in $250-350). These cars were only 7 years old and with average wear and in proper running condition. It would be another 15 years before any normal person thought to collect them or restore them. These cars had to spend the next 15 years floating along as old beaters that were worth almost nothing. Survival was low because one fender-bender or mechanical issue meant you needed to decide on fixing the problem (at more than the value of the car) or drive/tow it to the junkman. Fortunately, steel prices were low and junkmen often held the cars instead of crushing them, that saved a lot of '50's junkyard cars for us to find into the '80s & '90s. (See this '64 Newsweek article for the junkyard story) http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=389302369&context=photostre... http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=389302373&context=photostre... http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=389302375&context=photostre... Anyway, back to how this relates to finned Mopars dying at higher rates than the 'other guys'. My statistics show that the entire Mopar line consistently had lower resale value than the FoMoCo & GM cars as used cars. I tried to be as objective at my evaluations as possible, by entering cars with the same body style and organizing them by suggested retail price and general sales class. I then took the '62 resale value and compared it to the MSRP and found the % value loss. That seemed to be the fairest way to compare apples to apples. I did the same thing with the '65 resale value (which only goes back to '58). The way I organized the cars by MSRP is also interesting because you can really see what cars a certain model were competing against (i.e. the MSRP of the '59 Impala 2drHT was within $3 the price of a Coronet 2drHT & Fury 2drHT). The Red Book was very specific, so I was able to see the difference in value of each model in each body style. Two-door sedans were worth the least and wagons were worth the most. Two-door hardtops were worth the same as four-door hardtops and seemed to be right in the middle of the line in regards to resale value. Four-door sedans were worth a little less, and convertibles a little more than the 2dr/4dr Hardtops. Used car value differences were small within the line, so you could buy a convertible for $35 more than a sedan. When comparing all the different makes and models together, forwardlook mopars almost never appear in the top 1/3rd in resale value percentage for their market segment, for any year. Buick, Cadillac, Ch**y, Ford, Olds & Pontiac are almost always in the top 1/3rd. DeSoto, Dodge, Edsel, Imperial, Lincoln, Mercury, Plymouth & Studebaker all hang out in the lower 1/3rd in most years for most models. Higher line models in the Plymouth & Dodge brands faired the best for Forwardlooks, as did the low-end Chryslers. DeSoto was a "failed make" by '62, so I would expect lower resale, but it was not nearly as bad as Edsel. Studebaker had miserable resale value across the board, but Rambler did fairly well. So what was it that hurt the Mopar brands? What was in the minds of the '62 used car buyer that made it less desirable than other makes? We would all say that styling was a bonus (but we are all biased!). Was it a bad quality reputation? Was it poor marketing? Was it bad dealer service and reputation? The folks over at the mailing list believed it was simply a matter of: “The most popular cars when new were also the most popular when used”. That can best be measured by production totals, so I included that information in the charts (totals are for all body styles of that model). If you use this information, please cite me as the source (I spent a ton of time creating these data sheets!). Car models that have red text in the resale column are in the lower 1/3rd for resale value based on the resale value compared to the original MSRP. Cars in green are in the upper 1/3rd, and blue text means the car is in the middle 1/3. Here is 1957, but go to the links to see all the forwardlook years (images are large, so be patient): 1955 http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2271/2201073806_27fc6869fe_b.jpg 1956 http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2069/2201074704_5bcb6795af_b.jpg 1957 http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2106/2200280597_29dd3a0f38_b.jpg 1958 http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2028/2201076122_329fef1105_b.jpg 1959 http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2174/2200281937_3e13c85ff1_b.jpg 1960 http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2174/2200282705_a273a909d9_b.jpg 1961 http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2388/2201078328_79e4aa4a4c_b.jpg Lower used-car resale = faster to go to the junkyard. Plain and simple. I noticed that an average value of a '55 model in '61 was about 10% the original MSRP. That is a lot lower and faster than the used cars of today. It could be seen across the board, from economy models to luxury brands. That means the typical mid-level 1955 car, that sold new for around $2400, was worth around $240 in 1962. That was a good, solid, no-damage, reconditioned car sold at a dealership! I also had a Krause Publication’s Standard Catalog of American Cars, copyrighted in 1987 and a new Old Cars Price Guide, so I added the #2 value from those books into the database. Why #2? Well, a #2 car is a beautiful, complete car that would look nice in most any car show. A #1 car is close to a “trailer queen” and most really nice cars we see for sale are less than #1 quality. What can we see from the two values from 1987 & 2008 added to the database? That the Forwardlook cars have come around and are typically valued close to most of the GM cars. Here are my observations: Looking at the 1987 values, the Forwardlook cars are heavily resting in the bottom 1/3rd of all cars. FoMoCo holds much of the middle range, and GM cars consistently rise to the top. Looking at the 2007 values, the Forwardlook cars have begun to hold steadily in the upper 1/3rd with the GM cars. FoMoCo cars have slid more into the bottom 1/3rd, as well as the AMC & Studebaker models. Here is an attempt at showing this: The Mopars are in green. Notice the distribution of color in this image. Cars at the top have some of the worst value, cars at the bottom are the highest. It is not intended that you should read the text, just a way to see the generalized color shift from 1987 to 2008. Any thoughts from all this information? (Car Value-1957-small2.jpg) (Car Value - Bad to Good.jpg) Attachments ----------------  Car Value-1957-small2.jpg (270KB - 213 downloads) Car Value - Bad to Good.jpg (220KB - 242 downloads) | ||
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| 61plymy |
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Expert Posts: 2824  Location: Snohomish, WA. | |||
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| wizard |
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Board Moderator & Exner Expert 10K+ Posts: 13049   Location: Southern Sweden - Sturkö island | |||
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| slimwhitman |
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Elite Veteran Posts: 988 Location: Kansas City, Kansas | |||
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| Rob |
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| 59CRL |
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Expert Posts: 2679 | Wow, good work there, im checking the prices on the sheets you have, so a 57 Savoy is worth $8500 these days.... hmmmm...... dont let the ebays know that or they will triple their asking prices.....  | ||
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| slimwhitman |
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Elite Veteran Posts: 988 Location: Kansas City, Kansas | |||
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| Doctor DeSoto |
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Location: Parts Unknown | Rob - 2008-12-06 7:14 PM Agreed, all those cars back then did not hold up mechanically, most were good for less than 100K miles. Major repairs (valve jobs, engine rebuilds, trans rebuilds, etc) doomed most to the junkyard, why spend more to repair the car than it's worth? A '55 Dodge lost 40% of it's value in the first year, takes a Camry five years to lose 40% of its value. (I have the blue books on 55/56). I think most survivor cars had long-term (15+ years) owners that drove them little and kept them nice. They did not go onto the used car market until they had attained some collector status/value. Quality has gone up considerably, thanks to the Japanese. ********************************************* Rob, I am not picking on you by quoting. It is just that you make such good points I want to use your post as a jumping off point. Having witnessed (with some pain) the finned cars fall into decline and disappear from the American street scene, I have given this a lot of inquiry and study. Down the road from our farm (we moved there in 1969), Mr. Scramlin kept his 56 DeSoto at least until the late 70's, when a family member got him a 66 (?) Chrysler and the old DeSoto went away. Mr. Scramlin was a WW1 vet and a real interesting guy. He was on my paper route and I spent a lot of time talking to him about old stuff and his DeSoto in particular. Out past the water tower and over the hill, another old timer, Mrs. Miller lived. She no longer drove, but had three cars in her shed - a 36 Plymouth, a Model T flatbed, and a 56 Ford - all in good condition, and just waiting for the next time they were needed. Closer to the water tower, the Van Ryn's had a 1912 Alton, a 37 Terraplane, and a 57 Fairlaine 500, all resting peacefully in sheds around the place - as well as more modern cars they drove all the time. My observations about old stuff - not just cars - was that two factors came into play regarding public perception. The first was technological advancement - better brakes, easier to drive, etc., and the second was the illusionary chase of "fashion" .... something dreamed up by marketeers to make the owner "feel" they had an old and thereby inadequate car or whatever. Based on similar marketing "think" that is still with us today (blue book, Edmunds, etc.) many hours and lives have been spent devising this sliding scale of depreciation to ultimately prod potential consumers into buying into the illusion that "newest is bestest". Such a concept that if something is newer, it is therefore of higher quality is preposterous. There was crappy junk in the old days, just as there is crappy stuff today ! Secondly, defining "quality" can be a conundrum of the highest calibre. What one person defines as "quality" is another person's garbage. As an example, ... we all know how the economy is the talk of the media these days, yet electronic doo-dads like ifones and video games are setting record sales. I put a CD player in my work truck this year. That is as close to the electronic craze as I have gotten. I could not care less about video games and would rather have my teeth pulled out than sit in a chair and push little buttons for hours on end. In the bigger picture, I am SO out of step with the marketing world. And so was Mr. Scramlin with his DeSoto or any of those other people I mentioned. They liked what they had in terms of "quality" and their needs, and did not want to go buy a new 280Z or Corolla. Mr. Scramlin bought his DeSoto new in Redmond and worked on it right there in his driveway. It was a needed valve job that ultimately did it in, when a family member talked him into not doing the work on account of the "cost" exceeding the "value" of the car. He told me he immediately regretted being talked out of the DeSoto because it WAS worth more to him as a car than all the "value" talk of his relative and any blue book ratings. In other words, what is "value"? Is it some book rating made up by marketing people in some distant city ? What is their motive for telling us all that old is crappy and not as good as something new and shiney ? Value is a personal viewpoint, NOT something looked up in a book. Quality is every bit as subjective as "value". The "quality" I see in a chromed, spring steel bumper is "old and yucky" to the guy who thinks airbags and plastic impact bumpers are the coolest, you know ? Based on all of this, we all make decisions about what will determine the life of a car. I once owned a 58 Buick wagon that had over 500,000 miles on it and came with a five inch thick book of receipts and records of all the work the original owner did over his 30 years of driving the car. I found four different times he replaced the ball joints ! No doubt that at least three of those times the cost of the job exceeded the blue book value of the car. But he didn't give a rat's axx about what some other dude had to say about what his car was "worth". It was worth fixing and keeping in top shape every time to him. Granted, 99% of all 58 Buick wagons went to the scrap heap because it WASN'T worth the cost to fix vs. what blue book said to those owners, but just because "everyone" else is doing something doesn't mean it is the final word or I have to do it too (or take it as absolute fact). As I see it, most people are lazy. They take the path of least resistance and if that means following "fashion" or spending the least amount of money, then principles be darned .... just go with the flow. That is how the vast majority of the world works and if it weren't for the few weirdos in the crowd, stuff like steam locomotives and old cars would not exist at all. Just junk them and get a Prius. I fell in love with the world I saw as a kid. It seems to me that the world gets cheaper and trashier with every passing model year. I think what is good remains so, regardless of fashion. To my way of thinking, there never was a time when a 58 DeSoto was not the zenith of post-war automotive design. But if you look at the "stated" values of cars like ours in 1962, or 1965, you can clearly see that we were all being told what to think and that this very same 58 DeSoto that was the end all, beat all car just four years prior, was now not worth scrap price ..... I am sorry, but the car is still the same piece of sheetmetal and iron .... it is our eyes and thinking that changed, not the car ! I know, I know, ..... sanity is based on the "collective" response, and I am thereby deemed insane !  But I like my old junk and the argument of value and quality simply does not hold up logically. A well cared for machine can maintain value and quality forever. It is all in how you set your values.  Interesting data, all the same. I only wish I could have gone around buying every 57-58 Mopar ragtop for the "stated value" in 1965. The final reward and proof of value comes AFTER everyone heeds the fashion advice and junks their cars. Today my DeSoto is "worth" at LEAST twice what it was in 1965 ! | ||
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